Journal of Population Sciences
Table 3 Scenario estimates of annual change in migration pressure, by country
From: Prospects of labour migration pressure in Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey
Scenarios | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reference period | Business as usual | Open economies | Closed economies | |||||
2000–2015 | 2015–2025 | 2025–2035 | 2015–2025 | 2025–2035 | 2015–2025 | 2025–2035 | ||
Morocco | GDP | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
Output per worker | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Working-age population | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
Employment ratio | −0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | |
Non-employed population | 180,621 | 1,528 | 5,492 | -3,287 | 23,356 | −136,840 | −183,178 | |
Migration pressure | + | + | + | − | + | − | − | |
Algeria | GDP | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
Output per worker | −0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Working-age population | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | |
Employment ratio | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | −0.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
Non-employed population | 105,304 | −189,876 | −424,462 | 198,533 | 170,245 | 7,490 | −50,579 | |
Migration pressure | + | − | − | + | + | + | − | |
Tunisia | GDP | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
Output per worker | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Working-age population | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | |
Employment ratio | −0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | |
Non-employed population | 65,423 | −14,978 | −5,012 | −12,578 | −7,770 | −58,295 | −52,416 | |
Migration pressure | + | − | − | − | − | − | − | |
Turkey | GDP | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Output per worker | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Working-age population | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | |
Employment ratio | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
Non-employed population | 430,897 | 11,468 | −252,805 | 55,109 | −241,963 | −119,245 | −390,439 | |
Migration pressure | + | + | − | + | − | − | − | |