Journal of Population Sciences
Jump-off rates | FRA | ESP | SWE | BEL | UK | NOR | FIN | NLD | Av1 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a. Men | |||||||||
Standard deviation in 2020 | |||||||||
Model values | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.52 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
Last observed values | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
Average 2 years observed | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
Average 3 years observed | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
Average 4 years observed | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
Average 5 years observed | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
Mean absolute forecast error in the first year of the forecasting period | |||||||||
Model values | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.69 | 0.52 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.58 | 1.15 | 0.59 |
Last observed values | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.14 |
Average 2 years observed | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.16 |
Average 3 years observed | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 0.34 | 0.19 |
Average 4 years observed | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.12 | 0.44 | 0.24 |
Average 5 years observed | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.15 | 0.53 | 0.29 |
Mean absolute forecast error in the fifth year of the forecasting period | |||||||||
Model values | 0.21 | 0.35 | 0.93 | 0.69 | 1.04 | 1.25 | 0.84 | 1.60 | 0.86 |
Last observed values | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 0.16 | 0.65 | 0.37 |
Average 2 years observed | 0.28 | 0.45 | 0.38 | 0.28 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.17 | 0.74 | 0.41 |
Average 3 years observed | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.20 | 0.84 | 0.46 |
Average 4 years observed | 0.38 | 0.54 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 0.65 | 0.26 | 0.95 | 0.52 |
Average 5 years observed | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 0.73 | 0.31 | 1.05 | 0.58 |
b. Women | |||||||||
Standard deviation in 2020 | |||||||||
Model values | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.40 | 0.62 | 0.26 | 0.26 |
Last observed values | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.19 |
Average 2 years observed | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
Average 3 years observed | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
Average 4 years observed | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
Average 5 years observed | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
Mean absolute forecast error in the first year of the forecasting period | |||||||||
Model values | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.47 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 0.15 | 0.23 |
Last observed values | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
Average 2 years observed | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
Average 3 years observed | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
Average 4 years observed | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.15 |
Average 5 years observed | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.16 |
Mean absolute forecast error in the fifth year of the forecasting period | |||||||||
Model values | 0.26 | 0.37 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 0.61 | 0.14 | 0.46 | 0.24 | 0.31 |
Last observed values | 0.18 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.20 |
Average 2 years observed | 0.21 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.22 |
Average 3 years observed | 0.19 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 0.40 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.23 |
Average 4 years observed | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.41 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.25 |
Average 5 years observed | 0.22 | 0.34 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.44 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.26 |