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Journal of Population Sciences

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Table 2 MAFEs (×100) for ASFRs for 1-year-ahead to 20-year-ahead point forecasts by model/method and forecast horizon

From: Synergy in fertility forecasting: improving forecast accuracy through model averaging

  Six models Model average
Horizon HU HUrob HUw RW RWD ARIMA Frequentist Bayesian MCS Equal
1 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.14
2 0.25 0.25 0.22 0.27 0.29 0.24 0.23 0.27 0.26 0.23
3 0.34 0.34 0.31 0.38 0.41 0.34 0.32 0.38 0.37 0.32
4 0.43 0.43 0.40 0.49 0.53 0.44 0.40 0.48 0.47 0.40
5 0.51 0.52 0.48 0.59 0.64 0.54 0.49 0.58 0.56 0.49
6 0.60 0.60 0.57 0.69 0.75 0.63 0.57 0.67 0.66 0.57
7 0.69 0.69 0.65 0.79 0.87 0.74 0.66 0.77 0.75 0.66
8 0.78 0.78 0.76 0.88 0.98 0.85 0.75 0.86 0.84 0.75
9 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.98 1.08 0.96 0.83 0.96 0.94 0.83
10 0.96 0.96 0.96 1.07 1.19 1.06 0.92 1.05 1.02 0.92
11 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.16 1.29 1.16 1.00 1.14 1.11 1.00
12 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.25 1.39 1.25 1.07 1.23 1.20 1.07
13 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.34 1.49 1.36 1.16 1.32 1.29 1.15
14 1.33 1.32 1.30 1.44 1.59 1.46 1.25 1.42 1.38 1.24
15 1.44 1.42 1.43 1.53 1.69 1.56 1.33 1.51 1.48 1.33
16 1.53 1.53 1.51 1.63 1.80 1.66 1.44 1.61 1.58 1.43
17 1.63 1.63 1.58 1.74 1.91 1.76 1.54 1.71 1.70 1.54
18 1.76 1.74 1.78 1.85 2.03 1.88 1.67 1.80 1.83 1.67
19 1.88 1.88 2.01 1.96 2.14 2.02 1.79 1.93 1.94 1.78
20 2.00 2.00 2.08 2.07 2.24 2.19 1.88 2.05 2.02 1.88
Median 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.11 1.24 1.11 0.96 1.10 1.07 0.96
  1. The MAFEs are averaged over ages, years in the forecasting period and countries