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Journal of Population Sciences

Table 3 Mean interval score (×100) for ASFRs for 1-year-ahead to 20-year-ahead interval forecasts by model/method and forecast horizon

From: Synergy in fertility forecasting: improving forecast accuracy through model averaging

 

Six models

Model average

Horizon

HU

HUrob

HUw

RW

RWD

ARIMA

Frequentist

Bayesian

MCS

Equal

1

0.84

0.85

0.80

0.90

0.90

0.82

1.26

0.96

1.12

1.25

2

1.25

1.26

1.26

1.42

1.43

1.30

1.58

1.47

1.65

1.59

3

1.76

1.77

1.87

1.93

1.99

1.85

1.98

1.92

2.09

1.99

4

2.22

2.24

2.59

2.43

2.58

2.38

2.35

2.41

2.48

2.35

5

2.68

2.71

3.09

2.92

3.18

2.93

2.75

2.89

2.89

2.74

6

3.14

3.16

3.58

3.40

3.79

3.49

3.15

3.38

3.28

3.14

7

3.62

3.63

3.96

3.90

4.44

4.08

3.55

3.90

3.72

3.54

8

4.08

4.07

4.51

4.39

5.08

4.66

4.01

4.40

4.16

4.01

9

4.57

4.54

4.95

4.89

5.74

5.26

4.43

4.92

4.64

4.42

10

5.04

5.01

5.30

5.39

6.40

5.88

4.89

5.44

5.11

4.89

11

5.52

5.47

5.62

5.89

7.08

6.51

5.33

5.95

5.53

5.33

12

6.05

5.99

6.30

6.39

7.78

7.16

5.80

6.49

6.02

5.81

13

6.57

6.50

6.79

6.89

8.48

7.87

6.29

7.04

6.54

6.30

14

7.21

7.08

7.35

7.41

9.18

8.60

6.73

7.65

7.09

6.76

15

7.81

7.68

8.16

7.95

9.91

9.39

7.38

8.29

7.65

7.42

16

8.34

8.23

8.50

8.49

10.64

10.18

7.88

8.97

8.28

7.93

17

8.94

8.78

9.10

9.06

11.40

11.04

8.47

9.55

8.85

8.57

18

9.82

9.67

9.34

9.63

12.17

12.02

9.26

10.16

9.67

9.38

19

10.51

10.24

10.60

10.18

12.89

13.22

9.83

10.74

10.20

9.94

20

11.20

10.86

11.66

10.68

13.60

14.45

10.81

11.31

10.72

10.97

Median

5.28

5.24

5.46

5.64

6.74

6.19

5.11

5.70

5.32

5.11

  1. The mean interval scores are averaged over ages, years in the forecasting period and countries