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Journal of Population Sciences

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Table 3 Mean interval score (×100) for ASFRs for 1-year-ahead to 20-year-ahead interval forecasts by model/method and forecast horizon

From: Synergy in fertility forecasting: improving forecast accuracy through model averaging

  Six models Model average
Horizon HU HUrob HUw RW RWD ARIMA Frequentist Bayesian MCS Equal
1 0.84 0.85 0.80 0.90 0.90 0.82 1.26 0.96 1.12 1.25
2 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.42 1.43 1.30 1.58 1.47 1.65 1.59
3 1.76 1.77 1.87 1.93 1.99 1.85 1.98 1.92 2.09 1.99
4 2.22 2.24 2.59 2.43 2.58 2.38 2.35 2.41 2.48 2.35
5 2.68 2.71 3.09 2.92 3.18 2.93 2.75 2.89 2.89 2.74
6 3.14 3.16 3.58 3.40 3.79 3.49 3.15 3.38 3.28 3.14
7 3.62 3.63 3.96 3.90 4.44 4.08 3.55 3.90 3.72 3.54
8 4.08 4.07 4.51 4.39 5.08 4.66 4.01 4.40 4.16 4.01
9 4.57 4.54 4.95 4.89 5.74 5.26 4.43 4.92 4.64 4.42
10 5.04 5.01 5.30 5.39 6.40 5.88 4.89 5.44 5.11 4.89
11 5.52 5.47 5.62 5.89 7.08 6.51 5.33 5.95 5.53 5.33
12 6.05 5.99 6.30 6.39 7.78 7.16 5.80 6.49 6.02 5.81
13 6.57 6.50 6.79 6.89 8.48 7.87 6.29 7.04 6.54 6.30
14 7.21 7.08 7.35 7.41 9.18 8.60 6.73 7.65 7.09 6.76
15 7.81 7.68 8.16 7.95 9.91 9.39 7.38 8.29 7.65 7.42
16 8.34 8.23 8.50 8.49 10.64 10.18 7.88 8.97 8.28 7.93
17 8.94 8.78 9.10 9.06 11.40 11.04 8.47 9.55 8.85 8.57
18 9.82 9.67 9.34 9.63 12.17 12.02 9.26 10.16 9.67 9.38
19 10.51 10.24 10.60 10.18 12.89 13.22 9.83 10.74 10.20 9.94
20 11.20 10.86 11.66 10.68 13.60 14.45 10.81 11.31 10.72 10.97
Median 5.28 5.24 5.46 5.64 6.74 6.19 5.11 5.70 5.32 5.11
  1. The mean interval scores are averaged over ages, years in the forecasting period and countries