Journal of Population Sciences
From: Synergy in fertility forecasting: improving forecast accuracy through model averaging
 | Six models | Model average | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Horizon | HU | HUrob | HUw | RW | RWD | ARIMA | Frequentist | Bayesian | MCS | Equal |
1 | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 1.26 | 0.96 | 1.12 | 1.25 |
2 | 1.25 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.30 | 1.58 | 1.47 | 1.65 | 1.59 |
3 | 1.76 | 1.77 | 1.87 | 1.93 | 1.99 | 1.85 | 1.98 | 1.92 | 2.09 | 1.99 |
4 | 2.22 | 2.24 | 2.59 | 2.43 | 2.58 | 2.38 | 2.35 | 2.41 | 2.48 | 2.35 |
5 | 2.68 | 2.71 | 3.09 | 2.92 | 3.18 | 2.93 | 2.75 | 2.89 | 2.89 | 2.74 |
6 | 3.14 | 3.16 | 3.58 | 3.40 | 3.79 | 3.49 | 3.15 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 3.14 |
7 | 3.62 | 3.63 | 3.96 | 3.90 | 4.44 | 4.08 | 3.55 | 3.90 | 3.72 | 3.54 |
8 | 4.08 | 4.07 | 4.51 | 4.39 | 5.08 | 4.66 | 4.01 | 4.40 | 4.16 | 4.01 |
9 | 4.57 | 4.54 | 4.95 | 4.89 | 5.74 | 5.26 | 4.43 | 4.92 | 4.64 | 4.42 |
10 | 5.04 | 5.01 | 5.30 | 5.39 | 6.40 | 5.88 | 4.89 | 5.44 | 5.11 | 4.89 |
11 | 5.52 | 5.47 | 5.62 | 5.89 | 7.08 | 6.51 | 5.33 | 5.95 | 5.53 | 5.33 |
12 | 6.05 | 5.99 | 6.30 | 6.39 | 7.78 | 7.16 | 5.80 | 6.49 | 6.02 | 5.81 |
13 | 6.57 | 6.50 | 6.79 | 6.89 | 8.48 | 7.87 | 6.29 | 7.04 | 6.54 | 6.30 |
14 | 7.21 | 7.08 | 7.35 | 7.41 | 9.18 | 8.60 | 6.73 | 7.65 | 7.09 | 6.76 |
15 | 7.81 | 7.68 | 8.16 | 7.95 | 9.91 | 9.39 | 7.38 | 8.29 | 7.65 | 7.42 |
16 | 8.34 | 8.23 | 8.50 | 8.49 | 10.64 | 10.18 | 7.88 | 8.97 | 8.28 | 7.93 |
17 | 8.94 | 8.78 | 9.10 | 9.06 | 11.40 | 11.04 | 8.47 | 9.55 | 8.85 | 8.57 |
18 | 9.82 | 9.67 | 9.34 | 9.63 | 12.17 | 12.02 | 9.26 | 10.16 | 9.67 | 9.38 |
19 | 10.51 | 10.24 | 10.60 | 10.18 | 12.89 | 13.22 | 9.83 | 10.74 | 10.20 | 9.94 |
20 | 11.20 | 10.86 | 11.66 | 10.68 | 13.60 | 14.45 | 10.81 | 11.31 | 10.72 | 10.97 |
Median | 5.28 | 5.24 | 5.46 | 5.64 | 6.74 | 6.19 | 5.11 | 5.70 | 5.32 | 5.11 |