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Journal of Population Sciences

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Table 1 Life expectancies at age 65 in 2018 and 2065, by sex and education level

From: Disaggregation of official demographic projections in sub-groups by education level: the neglected “composition effect” in the future path of life expectancy

Year 2018 2065
  ISTAT official estimate (median scenario) ISTAT official estimate RetSimM estimates
    Convergence scenario 50% conv. scenario Constant scenario 50% trend scenario Trend scenario
Population 20.9 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6
Men 19.4 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7
Low education 18.7   22.7 22.2 21.6 21.1 20.6
High education 21.0   22.7 23.2 23.6 23.9 24.3
Women 22.6 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4
Low education 22.3   26.4 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.5
High education 23.9   26.4 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.5
  1. Estimates in 2018 for the low and high education groups refer to the hypothesis of constant Brass parameters
  2. Source: ISTAT Median Scenario and our own estimates based on the RetSimM model
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