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Journal of Population Sciences

Table 1 Life expectancies at age 65 in 2018 and 2065, by sex and education level

From: Disaggregation of official demographic projections in sub-groups by education level: the neglected “composition effect” in the future path of life expectancy

Year

2018

2065

 

ISTAT official estimate (median scenario)

ISTAT official estimate

RetSimM estimates

   

Convergence scenario

50% conv. scenario

Constant scenario

50% trend scenario

Trend scenario

Population

20.9

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

Men

19.4

22.7

22.7

22.7

22.7

22.7

22.7

Low education

18.7

 

22.7

22.2

21.6

21.1

20.6

High education

21.0

 

22.7

23.2

23.6

23.9

24.3

Women

22.6

26.4

26.4

26.4

26.4

26.4

26.4

Low education

22.3

 

26.4

25.9

25.5

25.0

24.5

High education

23.9

 

26.4

26.6

26.9

27.2

27.5

  1. Estimates in 2018 for the low and high education groups refer to the hypothesis of constant Brass parameters
  2. Source: ISTAT Median Scenario and our own estimates based on the RetSimM model