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Table 1 Iterative trend function coefficients with 95% CIs to Lee-Carter Index

From: Assessing excess mortality in times of pandemics based on principal component analysis of weekly mortality data—the case of COVID-19

Parameter Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Intercept 39.49
(39.4; 39.57)
33.4
(33.26; 33.54)
32.95
(32.79; 33.11)
\( \mathbf{\cos}\left(\frac{\boldsymbol{\pi} \boldsymbol{w}}{\mathbf{26}}\right) \) 1.34
(1.22; 1.47)
1.31
(1.27; 1.35)
1.05
(0.96; 1.15)
\( \frac{\mathbf{\exp}\left(\frac{\boldsymbol{w}-{\boldsymbol{t}}_{\mathbf{0}}}{\boldsymbol{\beta}}\right)}{\mathbf{1}+\mathbf{\exp}\left(\frac{\boldsymbol{w}-{\boldsymbol{t}}_{\mathbf{0}}}{\boldsymbol{\beta}}\right)} \) - 9.73
(9.51; 9.95)
9.74
(9.53; 9.94)
Spring - - 0.71
(0.58; 0.83)
Summer - - 0.55
(0.36; 0.73)
Autumn - - 0.5
(0.4; 0.61)
R2 0.3037 0.9153 0.928
AIC 3,707 1,520 1,358
BIC 3,722 1,539 1,392