Fig. 2

Temporal pattern of natural deaths (A) and unnatural deaths (B) in South Africa, 29 Dec 2019 to 10 July 2021. Solid brown lines are the counterfactual predicted numbers with the 95% confidence intervals represented by the dotted lines. Vertical lines represent in order the week in which: 0: The Disaster Management Act implemented. 1: lockdown level 5 introduced. 2: lockdown changed to level 4, with curfew. 3: lockdown changed to level 3 including unbanning of alcohol. 4: alcohol re-banned, and a curfew re-introduced. 5: lockdown changed to level 2, including unbanning of alcohol. 6: lockdown changed to level 1. 7: lockdown changed to level 3 advanced (re-banning alcohol and a extension of curfew). 8: lockdown relaxed to allow sale of alcohol 4 days/week and reduce curfew. 9: lockdown relaxed to allow sale of alcohol except during curfew shortened to midnight to 4am. 10: lockdown changed to level 3 advanced (limiting alcohol and extending curfew). 11: lockdown changed to level 4, with re-banning of alcohol and longer curfew. 12: Week of unrest in KZN and GT