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Journal of Population Sciences

Table 1 Summary of scenario assumptions for indicators of model variables

From: Prospects of labour migration pressure in Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey

Model variables and indicators

Business as usual (BAU)

Open economies

Closed economies

Population

Age distribution, by sex

UN 2015 base year

UN 2015 base year

UN 2015 base year

Migration

Net numbers of migrants, by sex

UN medium variant net migration numbers (negative for all four countries)

2015–2020 = 1.25 × average BAU level

2020–2025 = changes to average BAU level

2025–2030 = changes to zero by 2030

2030–2050 = changes to highest recorded net migration number, (+) sign is substituted for (−) if highest number is negative (−)

2015–2025 = average BAU level

2025–50 = changes to highest recorded negative net migration number

Modes of change

 

Linear

Linear, constant

Age pattern of migration, by sex

Model Western Standard UN (1992)a

Model Western Standard UN (1992)

Model Western Standard UN (1992)

Fertility

Total fertility rate (TFR)

TFR 2015 level changes to 2.1 by 2050

TFR 2015 level changes to 1.5 by 2050

TFR 2015 level changes to 2.4 by 2050

Mode of TFR change

Linear

Linear

Linear

Age pattern of fertility

UN medium variant

UN medium variant

UN medium variant

Mortality

Life expectancy at Birth e(0), by sex

0.1250 life expectancy years increase per calendar year

0.1875 life expectancy years increase per calendar year

0.0625 life expectancy years increase per calendar year

Mode of e(0) change

Linear

Linear

Linear

Age pattern of mortality, by sex

Constant WHO 2008 age pattern of mortality estimate by country

Constant WHO 2008 age pattern of mortality estimate by country

Constant WHO 2008 age pattern of mortality estimate by country

Economic production

GDP

2015–2035 = average annual GDP growth rate 2000–2015

2015–2035 = 1.25 times BAU scenario

2015–2035 = 0.5 times BAU scenario

Workers productivity

GDP/W

2015–2035 = average annual GDP/W growth rate 2000–2015

2015–2035 = 1.25 times BAU scenario Morocco (Morocco, Algeria), 1.5 times BAU scenario (Tunisia, Turkey)

2015–2035 = no increase, no decrease

  1. aUnited Nations (UN) (1992), Preparing migration data for subnational population projections, pp. 41–44. New York. 1992