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Genus

Journal of Population Sciences

Table 3 The time to decline based on observed rates in three contemporary populations

From: The time to decline: tracing a cohort’s descendants in below replacement populations

Measure

USA 2012

Italy 2012*

Hong Kong 2011

Life expectancy at birth

81.2

84.6

86.7

Total fertility rate

1.88

1.43

1.56

Net reproduction rate

0.92

0.70

0.76

Mean age of fertility

28.6

31.4

31.2

Variance of age of fertility

38.3

33.4

30.7

Time to decline (t*)

341.7

126.7

157.5

Ratio of total population size to initial cohort size at year:

 100

2.28

1.35

1.64

 150

1.93

0.79

1.08

 200

1.62

0.43

0.68

 250

1.36

0.24

0.44

 300

1.14

0.14

0.28

  1. Sources: Fertility data from United Nations Demographic Yearbook 2013, Table 10 (United Nations Statistical Division 2014). Female mortality values for the United States from Arias et al. (2016), Table 3; for Italy from ISTAT (2016), Life Tables of the Resident Population—2015; for Hong Kong from Hong Kong Life Table for Females, 2011, Table 3, Hong Kong Central Statistics Dept
  2. Notes: *Italian mortality is based on the 2015 Italian Life Table. In all cases, the sex ratio at birth is taken to be 105 males per 100 females. See discussion in text
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