Skip to main content

Table 2 Input data requirements of the eight regional mortality forecasting methods

From: Evaluation of simple methods for regional mortality forecasts

Method National input data Regional input data
National Death Rates National forecast death rates None
(Data cells = 0)
SMR Scaling National base period and forecast death rates Regional base period SMRs: total deaths by region; ERPs(1) by age and sex by region (Data cells = 41r) (2)
Broad Age SMR Scaling National base period and forecast death rates Regional base period SMRs: deaths by sex and broad age group by region; ERPs by sex and age group by region
(Data cells = 46r)
Mortality Surface National mortality surface of past and forecast nLx values Projected e0 by sex by region.(3)
(Data cells = 2r)
Brass Relational National base period and forecast lx values Regional base period lx values: deaths and ERPs by age and sex to create life tables.
(Data cells = 80r)
Rate Ratio Scaling National base period and forecast death rates Regional base period rate ratios: deaths and ERPs by sex and age group by region
(Data cells = 80r)
Broad Age Rate Ratio Scaling National base period and forecast death rates Regional base period broad age rate ratios: deaths and ERPs by sex and broad age group by region
(Data cells = 12r)
TOPALS National base period and forecast death rates Regional base period rate ratios: deaths and ERPs by sex and age group by region. (Data cells = 80r)
  1. Notes: (1) ERP = Estimated Resident Population. (2) r = number of regions. (3) If base period regional e0 values are not available they will need to be calculated, requiring deaths and ERPs by age and sex to create life tables. Regional e0 forecasts can be created by assuming they remain a constant proportion of an independent national e0 forecast throughout the forecast horizon