Evaluation of simple methods for regional mortality forecasts

Genus

Journal of Population Sciences

Table 5 Summary of death rate errors across all regions of Australia and both 2006–2011 and 2011–2016 periods

Method	Absolute Total Error (overall mortality)		Total Absolute Error (mortality age profiles)
Method	Median	95%	Median	95%
National Death Rates	0.035	0.105	0.054	0.117
SMR Scaling	0.020	0.091	0.048	0.128
Broad Age SMR Scaling	0.016	0.066	0.040	0.087
Mortality Surface	0.017	0.067	0.038	0.083
Brass Relational	0.020	0.072	0.038	0.088
Rate Ratio Scaling	0.018	0.065	0.039	0.087
Broad Age Rate Ratio Scaling	0.021	0.074	0.042	0.092
TOPALS	0.019	0.071	0.040	0.085

Note: Absolute Total Error and Total Absolute Error measures were calculated for each method taking into account errors across all regions and both forecast periods