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Table 6 Summary evaluation of the mortality forecasting methods applied to Australian regions

From: Evaluation of simple methods for regional mortality forecasts

Method Regional input data Ease of calculation Ease of assumption setting Plausibility Smoothness Accuracy
National Death Rates None Easy Difficult High Smooth Poor
SMR Scaling 41r Easy Moderate Potential problems Smooth Poor
Broad Age SMR Scaling 46r Easy Moderate Problems unlikely Smooth Reasonable
Mortality Surface 2r Complex Moderate High Smoothest Reasonable
Brass Relational 80r Complex Moderate High Smoothest Reasonable
Rate Ratio Scaling 80r Easy Difficult Potential zero rates Less smooth Reasonable
Broad Age Rate Ratio Scaling 12r Easy Difficult Problems unlikely Smooth Reasonable
TOPALS 80r Moderate Difficult Problems unlikely Smooth Reasonable
  1. Note: r refers to the number of regions