Journal of Population Sciences
Table 6 Summary evaluation of the mortality forecasting methods applied to Australian regions
From: Evaluation of simple methods for regional mortality forecasts
Method | Regional input data | Ease of calculation | Ease of assumption setting | Plausibility | Smoothness | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Death Rates | None | Easy | Difficult | High | Smooth | Poor |
SMR Scaling | 41r | Easy | Moderate | Potential problems | Smooth | Poor |
Broad Age SMR Scaling | 46r | Easy | Moderate | Problems unlikely | Smooth | Reasonable |
Mortality Surface | 2r | Complex | Moderate | High | Smoothest | Reasonable |
Brass Relational | 80r | Complex | Moderate | High | Smoothest | Reasonable |
Rate Ratio Scaling | 80r | Easy | Difficult | Potential zero rates | Less smooth | Reasonable |
Broad Age Rate Ratio Scaling | 12r | Easy | Difficult | Problems unlikely | Smooth | Reasonable |
TOPALS | 80r | Moderate | Difficult | Problems unlikely | Smooth | Reasonable |