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Table 3 Standard deviation (SD) of the increase/decrease of the life expectancy at age 65 in 2020 between ten successive forecasts (fitting periods 1960–2005, 1960–2006, …, 1960–2014) for six different choices of the jump-off rates applied to a Lee-Carter model, for eight Western European countries, men and women combined

From: Comparing strategies for matching mortality forecasts to the most recently observed data: exploring the trade-off between accuracy and robustness

Jump-off rates FRA ESP SWE BEL UK NOR FIN NLD Av1
Standard deviation in 2020
 Model values 0.11 0.11 0.23 0.17 0.15 0.26 0.51 0.17 0.22
 Last observed values 0.19 0.24 0.09 0.20 0.17 0.12 0.16 0.13 0.16
 Average 2 years observed 0.11 0.10 0.06 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.15 0.08 0.10
 Average 3 years observed 0.10 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.18 0.08 0.10
 Average 4 years observed 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.10 0.18 0.08 0.08
 Average 5 years observed 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.16 0.07 0.08
  1. The lowest SD is marked in bold, the highest SD in italics
  2. 1Unweigthed average of all eight countries