Skip to main content

Table 2 MCS procedure using the Tmax,M test applied to the RMSFE in the validation set from 1996 to 2005 for forecasting the Japanese female and male national and sub-national mortality for ages between 60 and 100+. From the 17 models, below is the selected superior set of the model(s)

From: Model confidence sets and forecast combination: an application to age-specific mortality

Population Superior models
  Female Male
Japan 1 1
Hokkaido 1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 16
Aomori 7 16
Iwate 3, 5, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15, 17 13
Miyagi 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 1, 3, 5, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Akita 7 14
Yamagata 13, 14, 16 5, 7
Fukushima 3 13
Ibaraki 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17 16
Tochigi 2, 7, 14, 15 8, 17
Gunma 8 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Saitama 8 14
Chiba 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 15 16
Tokyo 8 13, 15, 16
Kanagawa 8 14
Niigata 3, 5, 7, 8, 14, 15 3, 5, 7, 8, 13, 17
Toyama 3, 5, 7, 8 13, 17
Ishikawa 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15, 17 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Fukui 3 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Yamanashi 7 5, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Nagano 8 14
Gifu 13 3, 5, 7, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Shizuoka 1, 8, 10 13, 14, 15, 16
Aichi 1, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14 13, 14, 15, 17
Mie 9 8
Shiga 8 13
Kyoto 8, 13, 14, 15, 17 14
Osaka 8 17
Hyogo 8 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Nara 3, 5, 7, 8, 13, 14 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Wakayama 8 17
Tottori 7 3, 5, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Shimane 13, 15 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Okayama 10 1, 3, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16
Hiroshima 10 15
Yamaguchi 8, 15 14
Tokushima 7 7
Kagawa 14 3, 5, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Ehime 7 3, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Kochi 14 17
Fukuoka 1 13
Saga 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 5, 7, 14
Nagasaki 1, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 17
Kumamoto 15 14
Oita 13, 14 5, 7, 13, 14, 15, 16
Miyazaki 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 14, 15, 17 16
Kagoshima 1, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 3, 13, 14
Okinawa 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17 13, 14, 15, 16, 17