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Table 3 MCS procedure using the TR,M test applied to the RMSFE in the validation set from 1996 to 2005 for forecasting the Japanese female and male national and sub-national mortality for ages between 60 and 100+

From: Model confidence sets and forecast combination: an application to age-specific mortality

Population Superior models
  Female Male
Japan 1 1
Hokkaido 1 16
Aomori 7 16
Iwate 8 13
Miyagi 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 15 3, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Akita 7 14
Yamagata 13, 14, 16 5, 7, 13, 15, 16
Fukushima 3 13
Ibaraki 3, 7, 14, 15 16
Tochigi 15 8, 17
Gunma 8 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 14
Saitama 8 14
Chiba 3, 8, 9 16
Tokyo 8 16
Kanagawa 8 14
Niigata 3, 7, 8, 14 3, 5, 8, 13, 17
Toyama 3, 5, 7, 8 13, 17
Ishikawa 5, 7, 13 3, 5, 7, 13, 17
Fukui 3 3, 7, 8, 13, 14, 16, 17
Yamanashi 7 15
Nagano 8 14
Gifu 13 3, 5, 7, 13, 14, 15, 17
Shizuoka 1, 8, 10 8, 13, 14, 15, 16
Aichi 8 15
Mie 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 8
Shiga 8 13
Kyoto 14 14
Osaka 8 17
Hyogo 8 15
Nara 3, 5, 7 14
Wakayama 8 17
Tottori 7 3, 5, 8, 16, 17
Shimane 13, 15 8, 15, 16, 17
Okayama 10 1, 3, 8, 13
Hiroshima 10 15
Yamaguchi 8, 15 14
Tokushima 3, 5, 7, 8, 15 5, 7, 13, 14, 15, 16
Kagawa 14 3, 5, 7, 13, 15, 17
Ehime 7 1, 3, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Kochi 14 17
Fukuoka 1, 9, 10 13
Saga 3, 7, 8, 11, 15 7
Nagasaki 13 17
Kumamoto 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17 14
Oita 13, 14, 17 5, 7, 13
Miyazaki 3 16
Kagoshima 1, 3, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15 3, 13
Okinawa 12, 14 15, 16, 17