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Table 4 MCS procedure using the Tmax,M test applied to the mean interval score in the validation set from 1996 to 2005 for forecasting the Japanese female and male national and sub-national mortality rates for ages between 60 and 100+

From: Model confidence sets and forecast combination: an application to age-specific mortality

Population Superior models
  Female Male
Japan 8 8
Hokkaido 8, 13, 14, 15, 16 15
Aomori 8 14
Iwate 13 15
Miyagi 15 15
Akita 17 15
Yamagata 13 15
Fukushima 15 15
Ibaraki 8, 13, 14, 15, 17 15
Tochigi 15 15
Gunma 8 15
Saitama 8 15
Chiba 8 17
Tokyo 8 15
Kanagawa 8 15
Niigata 8 15, 17
Toyama 8 15
Ishikawa 7, 8, 13, 14, 15, 17 13, 14, 15, 17
Fukui 8 13
Yamanashi 8 15
Nagano 8 15
Gifu 15 15
Shizuoka 8 15
Aichi 8 15
Mie 8, 13, 14, 15, 16 15
Shiga 8 15
Kyoto 14, 15 15
Osaka 8 15
Hyogo 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 17
Nara 8, 13, 14, 15, 16 15
Wakayama 8, 15 15
Tottori 8 15
Shimane 15 15
Okayama 15 15
Hiroshima 8 15
Yamaguchi 8 15
Tokushima 15, 16 13, 14, 15, 16
Kagawa 8, 13, 14, 15 15
Ehime 8 15
Kochi 17 15
Fukuoka 8 15
Saga 15 15
Nagasaki 8 15
Kumamoto 13, 14, 15, 17 15
Oita 15 15
Miyazaki 17 15
Kagoshima 8, 13, 14, 15, 16 15
Okinawa 15 15