Table 6 Point and interval forecast accuracies among the 17 models and two model-averaged methods in the Japanese national data and the average of 47 sub-national populations for ages between 60 and 100+

Female

1

0.54

1.11

1.81

3.88

2

4.20

6.24

7.12

61.70

3

1.34

1.61

4.91

5.41

4

1.98

2.17

7.24

7.09

5

1.20

1.51

3.71

4.50

6

2.05

2.27

5.95

5.84

7

0.87

1.27

1.93

2.89

8

0.33

1.02

0.86

2.40

9

0.67

1.26

2.10

4.26

10

0.69

1.27

2.24

4.34

11

0.69

1.27

2.20

4.33

12

0.69

1.28

2.22

4.30

13

0.71

1.21

1.31

2.71

14

0.72

1.21

1.35

2.70

15

0.61

1.21

1.32

2.94

16

0.83

1.25

1.43

3.40

17

0.81

1.23

1.80

2.73

18

0.54

1.24

0.87

2.57

19

0.54

1.22

0.87

2.57

Male

1

0.71

2.55

2.79

9.56

2

2.27

4.02

7.97

14.57

3

1.93

3.13

8.17

11.40

4

2.92

3.76

12.18

13.01

5

1.78

2.96

6.42

9.45

6

2.75

3.69

9.72

10.47

7

1.60

2.84

3.81

7.91

8

0.65

2.47

1.37

5.77

9

0.99

3.78

3.68

12.80

10

1.00

3.76

3.80

12.78

11

1.02

3.83

3.91

13.05

12

1.00

3.47

3.63

10.88

13

0.72

2.51

1.50

5.86

14

0.78

2.51

1.49

5.87

15

0.72

2.47

1.98

5.02

16

0.93

2.47

1.79

7.23

17

0.76

2.44

1.79

5.49

18

0.71

2.51

1.36

5.06

19

0.71

2.50

1.36

5.07