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Table 7 Point and interval forecast accuracies for an existing model-averaged method averaged across the Japanese female and male national and sub-national mortality rates for ages between 60 and 100+. Forecast errors have been multiplied by 100. The results show its inferior point and interval forecast accuracies compared to the proposed two model averaging methods. This further confirms that one should not average all models, but a subset of all “good” models

From: Model confidence sets and forecast combination: an application to age-specific mortality

Series 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mean
Japan (RMSFE)
Female 0.93 0.95 1.26 0.89 1.49 1.55 1.43 1.30 1.03 1.20 1.20
Male 0.95 1.07 2.01 0.98 2.10 1.81 1.71 1.03 0.80 1.20 1.37
Japan (mean interval score)
Female 1.81 2.13 3.40 1.75 4.99 4.55 3.55 2.80 1.70 2.73 2.94
Male 2.39 3.05 6.73 2.61 7.87 6.18 5.61 2.59 1.89 3.40 4.23
Japanese prefectures (RMSFE)
Female 1.28 1.28 1.44 1.21 1.63 1.69 1.76 1.50 1.23 1.89 1.49
Male 2.72 2.71 3.00 2.73 3.26 3.20 2.93 2.60 2.20 2.22 2.76
Japanese prefectures (mean interval score)
Female 2.79 2.71 3.35 2.64 3.94 4.12 4.34 3.17 3.07 3.05 3.32
Male 7.18 6.74 7.94 6.92 8.79 8.58 7.73 6.18 5.42 5.63 7.11