Journal of Population Sciences
From: Synergy in fertility forecasting: improving forecast accuracy through model averaging
 | Six models | Model average | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Horizon | HU | HUrob | HUw | RW | RWD | ARIMA | Frequentist | Bayesian | MCS | Equal |
1 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.14 |
2 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.23 |
3 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.32 |
4 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.40 |
5 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.49 |
6 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.57 |
7 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 0.87 | 0.74 | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.66 |
8 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 0.98 | 0.85 | 0.75 | 0.86 | 0.84 | 0.75 |
9 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.98 | 1.08 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 0.83 |
10 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 1.07 | 1.19 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 0.92 |
11 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.16 | 1.29 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.11 | 1.00 |
12 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.25 | 1.39 | 1.25 | 1.07 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.07 |
13 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.34 | 1.49 | 1.36 | 1.16 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.15 |
14 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.44 | 1.59 | 1.46 | 1.25 | 1.42 | 1.38 | 1.24 |
15 | 1.44 | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.53 | 1.69 | 1.56 | 1.33 | 1.51 | 1.48 | 1.33 |
16 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.51 | 1.63 | 1.80 | 1.66 | 1.44 | 1.61 | 1.58 | 1.43 |
17 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.58 | 1.74 | 1.91 | 1.76 | 1.54 | 1.71 | 1.70 | 1.54 |
18 | 1.76 | 1.74 | 1.78 | 1.85 | 2.03 | 1.88 | 1.67 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.67 |
19 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 2.01 | 1.96 | 2.14 | 2.02 | 1.79 | 1.93 | 1.94 | 1.78 |
20 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.08 | 2.07 | 2.24 | 2.19 | 1.88 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 1.88 |
Median | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.24 | 1.11 | 0.96 | 1.10 | 1.07 | 0.96 |