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Journal of Population Sciences

Table 2 Projected increases in life expectancy at age 65, 2018–2065

From: Disaggregation of official demographic projections in sub-groups by education level: the neglected “composition effect” in the future path of life expectancy

 

Official ISTAT projection

RetSimM estimates

 

Official ISTAT projection

RetSimM estimates

Population

3.7

 

Population

3.7

 

Men

3.4

 

Women

3.8

 

Convergence scenario

  

Convergence scenario

  

Low education

 

3.9

Low education

 

4.1

High education

 

2.0

High education

 

2.7

50% convergence scenario

  

50% convergence scenario

  

Low education

 

3.4

Low education

 

3.6

High education

 

2.3

High education

 

2.9

Constant scenario

  

Constant scenario

  

Low education

 

2.9

Low education

 

3.2

High education

 

2.6

High education

 

3.1

50% trend scenario

  

50% trend scenario

  

Low education

 

2.4

Low education

 

2.7

High education

 

2.9

High education

 

3.3

Trend scenario

  

Trend scenario

  

Low education

 

2.0

Low education

 

2.3

High education

 

3.1

High education

 

3.5

  1. Source: ISTAT Median Scenario and our own estimates based on the RetSimM model