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Journal of Population Sciences

Table 1 Iterative trend function coefficients with 95% CIs to Lee-Carter Index

From: Assessing excess mortality in times of pandemics based on principal component analysis of weekly mortality data—the case of COVID-19

Parameter

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Intercept

39.49

(39.4; 39.57)

33.4

(33.26; 33.54)

32.95

(32.79; 33.11)

\( \mathbf{\cos}\left(\frac{\boldsymbol{\pi} \boldsymbol{w}}{\mathbf{26}}\right) \)

1.34

(1.22; 1.47)

1.31

(1.27; 1.35)

1.05

(0.96; 1.15)

\( \frac{\mathbf{\exp}\left(\frac{\boldsymbol{w}-{\boldsymbol{t}}_{\mathbf{0}}}{\boldsymbol{\beta}}\right)}{\mathbf{1}+\mathbf{\exp}\left(\frac{\boldsymbol{w}-{\boldsymbol{t}}_{\mathbf{0}}}{\boldsymbol{\beta}}\right)} \)

-

9.73

(9.51; 9.95)

9.74

(9.53; 9.94)

Spring

-

-

0.71

(0.58; 0.83)

Summer

-

-

0.55

(0.36; 0.73)

Autumn

-

-

0.5

(0.4; 0.61)

R2

0.3037

0.9153

0.928

AIC

3,707

1,520

1,358

BIC

3,722

1,539

1,392