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Journal of Population Sciences

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Table 2 Projected increases in life expectancy at age 65, 2018–2065

From: Disaggregation of official demographic projections in sub-groups by education level: the neglected “composition effect” in the future path of life expectancy

  Official ISTAT projection RetSimM estimates   Official ISTAT projection RetSimM estimates
Population 3.7   Population 3.7  
Men 3.4   Women 3.8  
Convergence scenario    Convergence scenario   
Low education   3.9 Low education   4.1
High education   2.0 High education   2.7
50% convergence scenario    50% convergence scenario   
Low education   3.4 Low education   3.6
High education   2.3 High education   2.9
Constant scenario    Constant scenario   
Low education   2.9 Low education   3.2
High education   2.6 High education   3.1
50% trend scenario    50% trend scenario   
Low education   2.4 Low education   2.7
High education   2.9 High education   3.3
Trend scenario    Trend scenario   
Low education   2.0 Low education   2.3
High education   3.1 High education   3.5
  1. Source: ISTAT Median Scenario and our own estimates based on the RetSimM model
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